Consolidated FDI in CDMX is misleading. The real manufacturing footprint is in El Bajío.
FDI in 2025 reached USD 40,871 million (+10.8%), but 54.8% is concentrated in Mexico City — mostly corporate registrations and reinvestment of earnings in financial services, not installed manufacturing capacity. Using gross FDI as a proxy for nearshoring attractiveness distorts the decision.
We built a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) index with 7 weighted dimensions applied to 12 states. The dimensions: manufacturing base (20%), human capital (18%), logistics (18%), industrial space availability (14%), energy infrastructure (14%), public safety (10%), and operational cost (6%). Sources: SE/RNIE, Solili (industrial vacancy Q4 2025), INEGI, IMCO, SESNSP.
The ranking changes radically: Guanajuato (76/100) and Nuevo León (75/100) lead the index. CDMX scores 58/100 — last place despite leading in gross FDI. Querétaro closes 2025 with 6.1% vacancy; Tijuana rises to 8.1%. The six states with a score ≥ 70 concentrate more than 80% of the country's exportable manufacturing.
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Visualizations programmatically generated from verified public data.
The problem
USD millions — SE/RNIE January-December 2025 (estimated)
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Ciudad de México | 22397 |
| Nuevo León | 4496 |
| Jalisco | 3189 |
| Guanajuato | 1798 |
| Coahuila | 1594 |
| Baja California | 1512 |
| Chihuahua | 1390 |
| Querétaro | 1185 |
| Tamaulipas | 818 |
| San Luis Potosí | 695 |
| Aguascalientes | 613 |
| Sonora | 490 |
Source: Secretariat of Economy / RNIE
The reframe
Score 0–100 (7 weighted criteria) — self-elaboration by LFPA Analytics
| State | Value | Profile |
|---|---|---|
| Guanajuato | 76 | Intensive manufacturing |
| Nuevo León | 75 | Human capital + logistics |
| Querétaro | 73 | Cost-quality balance |
| Coahuila | 73 | Heavy manufacturing |
| Aguascalientes | 71 | Automotive cluster |
| Jalisco | 70 | Tech + electronics |
| Chihuahua | 69 | Border maquiladora |
| San Luis Potosí | 67 | Central logistics hub |
| Baja California | 66 | Border maquiladora |
| Tamaulipas | 63 | Manufacturing, safety risk |
| Sonora | 60 | Mining and maquiladora |
| Ciudad de México | 58 | Services — no industrial space |
Source: Self-elaboration with SE, Solili, INEGI, and IMCO 2025 data
The space
% of available inventory — Solili Industrial Report Q4 2025
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Aguascalientes | 1.5 |
| Puebla | 1.5 |
| CDMX | 2.2 |
| Querétaro | 6.1 |
| Mexicali | 6.2 |
| Tijuana | 8.1 |
Source: Solili Industrial Report Q4 2025
The prescription
Top 3 states by manufacturing operation type
Intensive manufacturing
Mature automotive cluster, available industrial space (Silao, Celaya, Irapuato), competitive labor cost, and consolidated Tier-2 supplier network.
High technology
Highest concentration of technical talent in the north, top-tier universities, metropolitan area with an innovation ecosystem, and fast border access.
Cost-quality balance
Industrial vacancy of 6.1% (Q4 2025, Solili), outstanding public safety ranking, central logistics (equidistant to ports and border), moderate operating costs.
Methodology & Transparency
The MCDA index weights 7 criteria based on their documented impact on manufacturing nearshoring decisions: manufacturing base (20%), human capital (18%), logistics (18%), industrial space availability (14%), energy infrastructure (14%), public safety (10%), and operational cost (6%). The weights were calibrated based on manufacturing FDI literature and IMCO/WEF competitiveness rankings. Each criterion is scored from 0 to 10. Quantitative direct criteria include: industrial vacancy rate (Solili Q4 2025), manufacturing wage (IMSS/INEGI), crime index (SESNSP), and access to ports/border (SICT). Manufacturing base, energy infrastructure, and space availability criteria include structured judgment components documented in the chart tooltips. FDI data is from the RNIE (Secretariat of Economy) and represents gross FDI without filtering by destination sector; the CDMX figure includes corporate registrations of holding companies with actual manufacturing activity in other states.
Published: · Sources: SE/RNIE 2025, Solili 4T2025, INEGI, IMCO, SESNSP
Sources
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